The Trouble with Kerry

The Trouble with Kerry

by John S. Pappas - 11/13/03

In just under 6 months, the John Kerry campaign has managed to go from ‘leader of the pack’ to ‘one of the gang.’ Not satisfied with this result, the campaign has spent the last 72 hours publicizing the panic and instability occurring within.
The Boston Globe reported Monday that Sen. Kerry had fired his campaign manager, Jim Jordan, and replaced him with longtime Democratic strategist (and Senator Kennedy Chief of Staff) Mary Beth Cahill. The ink was barely dry from that story when Tuesday, the Associated Press reported that Kerry’s press secretary and deputy finance director quit in protest to Jordan’s firing.
The AP story reported that the members no longer employed by the Kerry campaign were part of a ‘faction’ within the campaign that is now out of favor with the candidate, being replaced by former members of fellow State Senator Kennedy’s staff. Additionally, the story stated that donors and supporters have been urging a ‘shake-up’ in the Kerry campaign, since he started trailing in the polls to Gov. Howard Dean.
However, it is hard to imagine the events of the past few days being scripted for public consumption. What is being presented instead smacks of confusion and uncertainty within the Kerry campaign.
Even before Kerry announced his run for the Presidency, he was considered the frontrunner. The latest Zogby poll of likely Democratic primary voters nationwide however, from November 6th, has Kerry in 5th place, behind Dean, Clark, Gephardt, and Lieberman, with just 7% of popular support.
If the removal of Jim Jordan as campaign manager is an indication of Kerry’s mindset, it seems to suggest that Jordan is to blame for Kerry’s fall from the lead. However, the blame for Kerry’s recent decline can be placed firmly on the shoulders of someone else: Howard Dean.
Two events occurred in the past few days to cause the panic now being displayed in the Kerry campaign. In the first, Dean received the endorsements of two of the country’s most powerful unions; the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). In the second, Dean announced that he was opting out of the taxpayer-funded presidential system, which limits the amount of money a candidate can spend during a campaign.
Dean’s announcement put Kerry in an impossible position; he cannot match Dean in spending because he is not bringing in enough money via donations to compete. If Kerry accepts the federal funds, he will still be unable to spend enough because of the spending limits associated with those funds.
Kerry has lost his frontrunner status not because of his campaign manager, but because he forgot the first rule in campaigning: secure the base. For Kerry to win, he needs to capture the Democratic base. In doing this, he will collect more money and endorsements, and be able to compete with Dean.
If Kerry fails in this, he will have gone from ‘leader of the pack,’ to: ‘also ran.’