We’ve Seen This Movie Before

by John S. Pappas - 10/31/04

America is in the final stages of a national election featuring an incumbent tax-cutting, pro-defense Republican president running against a tax-raising, left-leaning Democrat challenger. Citing breaking polls, perceived debate results, and right-track/wrong-track numbers, most pollsters and pundits claim the race is too close to call. In reality it is not that close, and one need only to look at history and the current political landscape to accurately predict the 2004 election result – Bush will win.

In the 1984 campaign for president, America faced a choice in candidates and direction eerily similar to the current campaign. The election of 1984 featured an incumbent tax-cutting, pro-defense Republican president - Ronald Reagan - running against a tax-raising, left-leaning Democrat challenger - Walter Mondale.

The country in 1984 was coming out of recession, in the early stages of an economic recovery spurred by tax cuts. However, the recovery had not fully taken hold and Walter Mondale gambled that Americans were not buying the Reagan economic plan, calling Reagan’s policies “Voodoo Economics.” The Democrat challenger ran a campaign critical of the economy and at that time, Mondale promised to raise taxes claiming; “Both of us will raise your taxes, he won’t tell you, I just did.” Reagan never did raise taxes and Mondale never had the chance.

America in 2004 is also coming out of a recession, and in the midst of a recovery. The Democrat challenger is likewise betting that Americans are not buying the President’s economic policies. Kerry is running a campaign critical of the economy, despite record low unemployment and economic growth not seen since Reagan’s presidency. Like Mondale, Kerry has promised to raise taxes.

In 1984 America had a president who decided to meet the challenge of an ideology bent on destroying freedom – communism. Reagan faced the threat of the U.S.S.R. and communism head-on, proclaiming communism a threat to free people. This was not a popular position with many in the U.S. Congress, as well as a Lt. Governor from Massachusetts running for the Senate, John Kerry.

In 2004 we have a president who has decided to meet the challenge of an ideology bent on destroying freedom – Islamo-terrorism. After 9/11, the President identified an “Axis of evil” in Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. This too was not a popular position with many in the U.S. Congress, including a Senator from Massachusetts, John Kerry.

Both presidents have faced harsh criticism internationally because of their stand against the enemies of freedom, and in Bush’s case, a war in Iraq. Despite this criticism, and standing side-by-side with their staunch ally Great Britain, both determined to defeat their adversaries.

It may be in the candidate’s philosophic visions of and for America however, that the greatest similarities between the campaigns exist. Bush, like Reagan, speaks to opportunities for all Americans – education, self reliance, home and business ownership. Kerry, like Mondale, speaks to injustice in America – poverty levels, middle class earnings, and lack of health care for the poor. While the rhetoric of Reagan and Bush speaks to government as a necessary evil - the words of Mondale/Kerry promote government as a champion of the less fortunate.

Inevitably, it is the candidate’s vision of the future for which American’s will vote. While current circumstances greatly influence voters, the war in Iraq being an example, it is their expectation of how their candidate will face the future that determines their vote. Bush, like Reagan, has the advantage in this, for he has expressed his vision is simple, straightforward terms – keep America safe at all costs and keep government out of the way of the people.

Reagan won the 1984 election by a landslide. Modern sensibilities suggest that Bush cannot win in such a fashion. However he may still win handily. America has changed tremendously over the past 20 years, but Americans have not. The 2004 campaign is a movie we have seen before, and all one need do is fast forward to the end to see how it will turn out.

© 2004 Johnny P News