Winning in Iraq by the Numbers - (from the Washington Times)

By John S. Pappas – 12/07/03

Since the war in Iraq began in March, every attack against Americans or U.S. victory resulting in loss of life for American forces has brought poll results and articles that question the effectiveness of the war effort. Now, these stories appear even after overwhelming U.S. victories.

On Monday, The Washington Post ran a Page One story on the Sunday battle in Samarra, Iraq, in which U.S. Armed Forces repelled simultaneous ambushes by Iraqi insurgents and Saddam loyalists. The thrust of The Post's article was that Iraqis are exhibiting new battlefield tactics that are a source of concern for U.S. Forces, and it used Sunday's battle as an example. The New York Times likewise ran a front-page story that mentioned this same concern for U.S. commanders.

These writers may want to use a different example, as Sunday's battle was a huge defeat for Iraqi insurgents and Saddam loyalists. U.S. estimates of insurgent and Saddam loyalist casualties from Sunday's battle is said to be 54 dead and 18 wounded, while U.S. forces suffered just five wounded.

This represents a defeat for the Iraqi insurgents and Saddam loyalists far more devastating than anything Americans have experienced in Iraq.

Current American troop strength in Iraq is estimated at approximately 120,000. In November, which is being called the bloodiest month of the war for the U.S., the United States military suffered 67 hostile deaths in Iraq. This means that for the month of November, .05* percent of the American Army was killed in combat.

In contrast, with estimated troop strength of 5,000 fighters, insurgents and Saddam loyalists lost 1* percent of their army in one day.

To put this in perspective, a similar U.S. defeat that resulted in the deaths of 1 percent of the U.S. Army currently in Iraq would mean 1,200* American soldiers dead in one day.
Other news reports say Iraqis who live in Samarra claim only nine were killed. This figure represents .0018 of total insurgent forces, and using this number, a comparable U.S. death toll would be 216 killed in one battle, which would still represent a high casualty rate.

The attacking Iraqi force was estimated to be 30-40 at each location at the beginning of the battle. If the high number of 40 for each group is used, this means a total attacking force of 80. At 54 killed, 67 percent of the original attacking force was killed.

Looking beyond the numbers, the defeat suffered by the Iraqis is no less devastating.
The American forces at Samarra were surrounded, and occupied the low ground. The Iraqis had positioned themselves on rooftops to be able to fire on the U.S. forces from multiple angles. The Iraqis had the element of surprise on a U.S. force that was split up in two locations. According to the U.S. Army; "Combined Arms Operations in Urban Terrain" manual, these are all disadvantages.

The army manual describes high-intensity urban operations as "combat actions against a determined enemy occupying prepared positions or conducting planned attacks."
This is what news reports say happened in the Samarra battle. The Post's article attributed qualities like "unprecedented coordination, tactics, and numbers unseen" on the part of the attackers as the main reasons for concern. The story quotes a soldier who said he witnessed Iraqis fighting with great intensity though they knew they would be killed.

However, the soldier went on to say U.S. forces fought with the same intensity, and this is exactly what the Army's Urban Terrain manual prescribes: "Urban Operations (UO) under high-intensity conditions require the coordinated application of the full combat power of the joint combined arms team. Infantry units must be prepared at all times to conduct violent combat under conditions of high-intensity UO."

It is evident by accounts of Sunday's battle that U.S. forces acquitted themselves quite well.

The goal of the insurgents is to kill Americans while demoralizing America. In an attack where the attackers suffer high losses without inflicting any on the enemy, however, the attackers appear weak. Even worse for the insurgents, Sunday's battle has given Americans something to cheer about.

© 2003 Johnny P News - Reprinted with permission

Author's note:

America lost .005% of the total force in November, 2003

The number 54 represents .01% of 5000, not 1%

Likewise, 1200 is .01% of 120,000